World Cup Semifinal 2026: Watch Free + Odds

The World Cup 2026 semifinal game is free to watch in most major markets: in the US, FOX carries select matches over the air in English and Telemundo covers 92 matches free in Spanish; UK viewers get every game free on BBC and ITV; Australian fans can stream all 104 matches free on SBS; and German, Spanish, French, and Portuguese audiences all have free-to-air options covered below. The world cup semifinal 2026 is the last chance for four nations to reach the final at MetLife Stadium.

Two matches decide the finalists. Match M101 kicks off on 14 July at 2:00 p.m. local time (UTC-5) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington (FIFA name: Dallas). Match M102 follows on 15 July at 3:00 p.m. local time (UTC-4) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. If either match is level after 90 minutes, extra time of 2x15 minutes is played, followed by a penalty shoot-out if needed. The winners advance to M104, the final at MetLife Stadium.

Where to Watch the Semifinal Free, by Country

This is the section that matters most if you want to avoid paying. Below is every verified free option by market, followed by an honest breakdown of paid tiers for those who want full access.

• USA: FOX free over-the-air covers about 70 of 104 matches in English. Telemundo is free for 92 matches in Spanish. Tubi carries select marquee matches ad-supported with no login required.
• UK: BBC and ITV share all 104 matches free. Stream via BBC iPlayer or ITVX at no cost.
• Ireland: RTE and the RTE Player carry matches free.
• Germany: ARD and ZDF are free-to-air with no subscription needed.
• Spain: RTVE and its streaming platform RTVE Play are free.
• France: TF1 and M6 carry matches free; stream via TF1+ or M6+.
• Portugal: RTP, SIC, and TVI are all free-to-air.
• Australia: SBS carries all 104 matches free, including both semifinals, via SBS On Demand.
• Canada: CTV shows select matches free.
• Mexico: ViX carries 32 matches free.
• Global fallback: The first 10 minutes of every match are free on YouTube. FIFA+ is available where no local rights exist.

Paid options, priced honestly: In the US, FOX One costs about $19.99 per month with a 3-day trial; FS1 carries 34 US matches; Peacock costs about $11 per month and offers all matches in Spanish. In Mexico, ViX Premium unlocks all 104 matches beyond the free 32. In Canada, TSN+, RDS, and Crave hold Bell's exclusive full slate. DAZN carries Spain's full slate. In the MENA region, beIN SPORTS and TOD hold exclusive rights across 24 countries, with passes starting from about $99.99. In Germany, MagentaTV is the rights holder. In France, beIN CONNECT is the paid supplement to free-to-air coverage. Prices and per-match channel splits can change, so verify with your local broadcaster before kickoff.

World Cup Semifinal Odds

The table below shows the three most likely semifinal pairings based on consensus probability, calculated as the average of Opta's supercomputer (live feed, 8 July) and Polymarket prices (7 July). Pairing probability is the product of each team's individual chance of reaching the semifinals.

These figures carry 7-8 July timestamps and will shift as the quarterfinals are played. The odds on world cup semifinal matchups reflect France and Spain as the likeliest pairing by a clear margin.

World Cup Semifinal Predictions

Three pairings, ranked by likelihood. Each one is assessed on current form and path to the semis, giving you a clear sense of which match to plan your viewing around.

France vs Spain (54.7% likely)

France have been the tournament's most complete team. They went through the group stage with a perfect record, scoring 14 goals in five matches, and Kylian Mbappe now holds the record as the all-time World Cup knockout-stage top scorer with seven goals. The only concern is the absence of Tchouameni through injury, which removes cover in midfield. Spain are the mirror image defensively: they have conceded zero goals in five matches, and a substitute's 90+1 minute goal against Portugal was enough to send them through. It is a clash of the tournament's best attack against its best defence. France are heavy favourites at the quarterfinal stage with a 1X2 price of 1.59, while Spain sit at 1.62 against Belgium, reflecting near-identical confidence in both sides. The 2026 world cup semifinal prediction here: France advance, but Spain's defensive record makes this closer than the raw numbers suggest.

England vs Argentina (45.7% likely)

England beat Mexico 3-2 at the Azteca with ten men, with Jude Bellingham scoring twice and Harry Kane adding a penalty. Kane has six goals in the tournament and Jordan Pickford has been outstanding in goal. Quansah's red card means he is suspended for the quarterfinal, leaving England short at the back. Argentina are the defending champions and have five wins from five, but they have needed late escapes: a 3-2 win after extra time against Cabo Verde and a 3-2 comeback from 0-2 down against Egypt. Lionel Messi leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals and is the all-time World Cup top scorer. A second consecutive title would be the first back-to-back since Brazil in 1962. Argentina's quarterfinal price of 1.72 makes them the favourites. The 2026 world cup semifinal prediction here: Argentina advance on the strength of Messi and their experience as holders, but England's counter-attacking threat makes this the most unpredictable semifinal scenario.

Norway vs Argentina (25.9% likely)

Norway's run is the tournament's biggest story. They knocked Brazil out 2-1 with Erling Haaland scoring in the 79th and 90th minutes, and it is Norway's first-ever World Cup quarterfinal. Haaland has scored in every World Cup match he has played. At a quarterfinal price of 4.30, Norway are heavy underdogs against England, meaning they would need to cause another upset just to reach this semifinal. Argentina would then be strong favourites to handle them. At 25.9% consensus probability, this pairing is real enough to watch for, but it requires Norway to win their quarterfinal first. The world cup semifinal prediction here: if this match happens, Argentina's depth and Messi's form make them the likely winners, though Haaland's ability to decide games in a single moment keeps Norway dangerous.

Semifinal Betting While You Watch

Three angles grounded in the tournament data, tied to the numbers available as of 7-8 July.

• Back France in SF1 if they get there: France's quarterfinal price of 1.59 against Morocco reflects the market's confidence, and their 14 goals in five matches shows an attack that has not slowed down. Mbappe's form alone justifies favourites pricing at the semifinal stage.
• Spain's clean sheet run is a real angle: Zero goals conceded in five matches is a tournament fact, not a projection. Any market tied to Spain keeping another clean sheet in a semifinal has a genuine statistical foundation, even if the price will be short.
• Argentina's late-game resilience cuts both ways: Two consecutive narrow escapes suggest vulnerability, but both times they found a way to win. In-play markets during the second half of any Argentina match could offer value if they are trailing, given their demonstrated ability to come back.

Always set a budget before you start and only bet what you are comfortable losing.

The Bigger Picture: What the Semifinals Mean

The two semifinal winners meet in M104 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford (FIFA name: New York New Jersey) on 19 July at 3:00 p.m. local time (UTC-4). The two losers play the bronze final, M103, on 18 July at 5:00 p.m. local time (UTC-4) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens (FIFA name: Miami). Opta's supercomputer gives France a 34.1% chance of lifting the trophy, with Argentina at 18.8%, Spain at 18.7%, and England at 15.6%. Norway sit at 6.0%, a remarkable figure for a team playing their first-ever quarterfinal. The semifinals are where the tournament's shape becomes clear, and the free broadcast options across every major market mean there is no reason to miss a minute of either match.

FAQ

Where can I watch the World Cup semifinal for free?
In the US, FOX over-the-air covers select matches free in English and Telemundo covers 92 free in Spanish; Tubi carries select marquee matches with no login. UK viewers get both semifinals free on BBC and ITV. Australian fans have all 104 matches free on SBS. Germany (ARD/ZDF), Spain (RTVE), France (TF1/M6), Portugal (RTP/SIC/TVI), and Ireland (RTE) all have free-to-air coverage. The first 10 minutes of every match are also free on YouTube globally.

Is the semifinal on free TV in the US?
Yes. FOX carries about 70 of 104 matches over the air in English at no cost. Telemundo broadcasts 92 matches free in Spanish. Tubi also carries select matches ad-supported with no subscription or login required. FS1 and FOX One are the paid upgrades if your match is not on the free broadcast.

When is the World Cup semifinal match?
M101 is on 14 July at 2:00 p.m. local time (UTC-5) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington (FIFA name: Dallas). M102 is on 15 July at 3:00 p.m. local time (UTC-4) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Both matches go to extra time and penalties if level after 90 minutes.

What is the most likely semifinal matchup?
France vs Spain is the most likely pairing at 54.7% consensus probability (Opta 8 July / Polymarket 7 July average). England vs Argentina is the second most likely at 45.7%, followed by Norway vs Argentina at 25.9%. SF1 feeds from the France-Morocco and Spain-Belgium quarterfinals; SF2 feeds from the Norway-England and Argentina-Switzerland quarterfinals.